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Upcoming Baseball Season Futures Bets

admin — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 02:40:09 +0000

Hello there iBet.pro!

I am a new contributor here at iBet.pro and I will be focusing on some of the different bets that I find to be attractive for the upcoming year in sports! It’s just about that time of year when pitchers and catchers start breaking out the leather and warming up for the upcoming season so let’s talk some baseball!

There are always a number of futures bets that you can make right now, before the dust from spring training has settled, and get some favorable odds. Often times early trades will artificially pump up or down the odds of a number of teams within the effected division and these can make some attractive bets. There are also usually some dark horse candidates to compete for a playoff spot that haven’t quite materialized in the press just yet.

Let’s examine some of the Futures to win the series in 2008.

The Mets’ acquisition of the best left hander in baseball has obviously gotten the whole baseball world buzzing with them set up as the early favorites to come out of the NL. However, as much as the Mets have improved there is one contender within their own division that has been all but overlooked. Namely the Atlanta braves. The recent upsurge in odds makers’ confidence in the Mets wining the division has pounded down the odds on the Braves by enough to make them seem attractive. They currently are sitting at 30-1 and they have historically shown that they can go deep into the playoffs even in years in which the Mets are early on considered the “class” of the division. They finished with 4 less wins then the Mets last season and their top three of Glavine, Smoltz and Hudson stacks up quite favorably against most of the National League rotations. You can pencil them in for around 90ish wins which should be enough to get them in for at least a wild card appearance. At 30-1 they could be one of the bigger money makers with a legitimate shot at winning it all.

Out of the AL the competition looks a little bit stiffer with less bargains to be had. However, the Indians out of the central seem to have the odds against them to come out of the central division. With the trades that Detroit has made odds makers have them pegged to take the central with 7-1 odds for them to win it all. Where as the Indians who have not had any major subtractions from a nucleus that knocked off the Yankees and took the eventual champion Red Sox to seven look to be just as strong this season as last. I am not enamored with the trades that Detroit has made and I don’t feel like it is going to close the sizable 8 win gap between them and Cleveland during the 2007 season. At 10-1 Cleveland looks like a bargain to compete for the 2008 title. Look for Cleveland to be on top of the division come September and make a title run in October.

Now let’s examine some of the divisional races for the upcoming 2008 season.

The NL west may be the most highly contested division in baseball with four teams that can make a legitimate claim that they will be staking claim to the division title. The odds makers have Arizona as the early favorite at 9-5 odds, with Colorado and San Diego close on their heels at 11-5 and LA rounding out the legitimate contenders at 3-1. The Rockies last year showed that they have a young team that we can expect to hit and field the ball well and a pitching staff that is more then adequate. With Los Angeles having as many pitching question marks as they do and San Diego still unable to solve the issue of a complete lack of power in the heart of their lineup, the only other remaining team in contention is Arizona. Expect Arizona to drop a few too many games that Webb and Haren aren’t pitching to catch up to Colorado down the stretch. Colorado at 9-5 looks like the prudent bet in this tough division.

Also on an if you or anyone you know enjoys bingo, have them check out this online bingo site. I was recently introduced to it by a friend and it was a fun way to kill some time playing some free bingo. Give it a whirl and see if that can help satisfy the gambling bug until the wonderful new 2008 season begins!

-Chad signing off

If You’re Watching It on TV You’re Participating in the Outcome

admin — Mon, 04 Jun 2007 19:42:27 +0000

I was falling asleep on the floor last night as the Red Sox and Yankees dragged out another classic hard fought game. The score was tied at 5 as they went into the ninth inning. With 2 outs, A-Rod was up. Francona went to the bullpen. ESPN went to commercials. I went back to sleep.
I woke up, struggling to blink my eyes and see it was a 3-1 count on Rodriguez. Papelbom was pitching. ARod leaned in and twirled his bat without taking his eyes off the pitcher. After about ten minutes, he fired a curveball, an unexpected pitch for that count. ARod swung and missed. Varitek threw the ball back and papelbom walked off the mound and proceeded to pace around and rub his hands. When the camera closed on the pitcher, he looked pale and frightened. The camera switched on ARod who was calm, except that under the dark eyelids his eyes were burning. He looked like a tiger. Then I realized, and said to myself, “he’s about to go yard.” Next pitch, Rodriguez hit it into the bullpen. Fenway went silent as he jogged around the base. New York had just taken the lead.
Boston got the next out and as they went to the bottom of the ninth, ESPN showed who was up next: Big Papi, Manny, and Youkalis. I made myself stay awake. The Yankees brought in their closer. Then I watched with a hopeless feeling, as Mariano Rivera blew through the heart of the Red Sox order. As I watched, unmoving, my reaction was produced by a genetic code, hard-wired from past seasons (particularly since 1998), and recurrent familiarity — as if circadiem cycles — of losing games to New York.
It was the great Rivera of old, picking his spots with a defined cutter, slicing up corners. He remains a master, just as ARod remains one of the three best hitters in the game. There must have been satisfaction in that win for New York, on the road in Boston, struggling, the real possibility that Torre’s job is on the line, the long wait for some kind of comeback, a resurgence, and now the possibility of winning the next 7 out of 10. Beating Boston is emotional. Petite got knocked out early, so I don’t know how they did it. Boston bats weren’t terribly cool. The Yankees just stayed in there, and ARod came through with the dinger.

One Win in Boston Does Not Mean the Yankees are Resurging

admin — Sun, 03 Jun 2007 21:25:20 +0000

Sunday night, Yankees play Boston in the third of a three-game series at Fenway, tied at one a piece. Josh Beckett is starting for the Red Sox. For the Yankees, Andy Petite who has been pitching well. In his last start he was able to go 7.1 innings in a 3-2 loss to Toronto. He is their most solid starter.
However, bettors get nostalgic for the sure thing when the Yankees never let you down, no matter how cold you were. Bettors have to accept this is not the same team as in past years. First of all, New York’s bullpen stinks. Mariano isn’t even that good anymore.
Cano and Melki are hot, Jeter had a big hit the other night, and Matsui is dangerous. But Posada has cooled down, Abreu sucks, and A-Rod hasn’t done much in this series. Giambi may be out for the season and Johnny Damon has leg problems and is DH’ing tonight. So it comes down to Petite. For New York to win, Petite would need to pitch 8 innings.
Meanwhile, everyone on the Red Sox is hot. Left-handers get knocked around at Fenway, with the Green Monster and a short porch in right field. However, to his credit, Petite has a 2.45 ERA and 1.58 WHIP at Fenway this year; since 1987, he has a 2.92 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, which is Solid. His numbers against the top Red Sox hitters are cause concern if you’re a Yankee bettor. This year and since 1987, David Ortiz is hitting .111 and .323, respectively, against Petite; Manny is batting .375 this year and .418 since 1987; Lowell is .375 and .333; Varitek is .250 and .341; Youkalis has only seen him this year and is hitting .571 against the Yankees ace.
The issue of Beckett’s finger, which caused him to miss two starts, was defused when he came off the DL May 29 against Cleveland:
“Beckett went on the disabled list with a torn flap of skin on his right middle finger. He returned Tuesday and pitched seven innings of three-hit ball, facing the minimum number of batters in the first six innings before allowing two seventh-inning runs. Beckett struck out seven and walked one to become the first Red Sox starter to win his first eight decisions since Roger Clemens opened the 1986 season 14-0.”
It’s hard to say the finger will be a problem for Beckett and Boston. The Yankees continue to struggle. Winning this series would give them confidence, but it’s not going to happen.

outcome: Yankees 5 Red Sox 4

Box Scores Are Web 1.0?

admin — Thu, 03 May 2007 09:20:14 +0000

Box Scores – web 1.0? Thats’s the case according to this recent Fortune Magazine article.

The replacement is the Winning Probabilty Added graph or WPA. From the Kansas City Star:

The concept of WPA has been around for almost 40 years. But the stat caught fire on the Web after the publication of last year’s The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball by sabermetricians Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman and Andrew Dolphin. The WE values currently in vogue were established in that book.

David Appelman, owner and Web master of FanGraphs.com, seized upon the WPA framework and incorporated it into his site, where you can find WPA statistics for every player, every team and every game. And you can look at these (and a lot more) both in numerical format or on easy-to-read graphs.

“What’s great about WPA,” Appelman said, “is that after the game you can quantify a player’s contribution to the win or loss.

Check out FanGraphs for more examples of WPA charts and how they might be used to improve your winning percentages.

Yankees Truly Do Suck – It’s True!

admin — Wed, 02 May 2007 22:09:07 +0000

I’ve been very busy lately so I haven’t had much time to blog. So to make sure this blog has a pulse I’ll do a rundown on cool gambling related links I’ve seen lately.

SportsBettingBaseball provides the Baseball Money Rankings Report listing which teams are the best bets for your money so far this season. According to the latest numbers, the worst team to bet on in the MLB is the New York Yankees. (In case your wondering the best team is the Cleveland Indians)
Barney Frank is at it again. He claims that resistance to the online gambling ban is growing:

I think a lot of members of Congress voted for that (ban) without having given it a lot of attention,” Frank said Wednesday. “And I think that there is growing opposition to it,” he said. “I think that this may be a case where, after the fact of having voted for it, people don’t like it and they reconsider.”

Frank, the new chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said he plans to introduce a bill “probably next week, maybe the week after” against the Internet gambling ban.
Some of these gambling guys need to beef up their website’s security. I guess the “secret” is out.
Finally this story struck me as funny.

A MAN who bet $240 a decade ago that he would live to be 100 is preparing to pick up his $60,000 winnings.

So confident was bookmaker William Hill in 1997 that it gladly offered Alec Holden odds of 250/1.

But the retired engineer, born April 24, 1907, celebrates his century – to the bookies’ dismay.

Mr Holden, from Epsom in Surrey, joked: “I’ve been very careful about what I’ve been doing in recent months. If I saw any hooded groups from William Hill standing in the street, I avoided them.”

Hopefully I’ll be back soon. In the meantime, all you MMA fans can check out my new video site, ProMMA.TV – enjoy!

Don’t Be Sorry – Bet On Baseball

admin — Wed, 11 Apr 2007 18:59:40 +0000

A new season of baseball is upon us and in it’s honor I’ve rounded up a list of some nice sites to help you to win more of your baseball wagers.

Sportscapperisland.com offers 5 reasons to bet on baseball. From my experience #3 is right on the money:

3. Out of all sports, baseball is probably the most well known for streaks. With each team playing five or six days a week, there are many more streaks to be predicted. Riding a hot team or fading (betting against) a slumping one at the right time can be a gold mine.
Professor Bukiet of eGrandSlam.com presents his 2007 MLB Season Predictions. 110 wins for the Yankees? As a Red Sox fan, all I can say is I’m glad these games are played on the field and not on paper.
Baseball-Reference.com offers a ton of baseball statistics for your analyzing enjoyment. The site has a clean design and is fairly responsive with not too many ads. I give it a thumbs up.
A bit off-topic, but cool nonetheless, Liveboard looks like a neat little gadget for baseball fans. It basically is a wireless device that displays realtime baseball scores with LED lights in a device that looks like a baseball scoreboard. Although it’s a bit pricey at $299.00, at least they aren’t charging subscription fees.

Good luck with your baseball bets – I hope you all have a winning season. Go Red Sox and go Padres!