Pro sports bettors meet in Vegas

A group of top sports bettors met recently in Las Vegas and the Sun ran an interesting interview with one of the participants. The interviewee wanted to keep a low profile for obvious reasons:

A tableau reminiscent of that classic exchange played out this weekend in a well-appointed conference room at a Strip resort, where a small group of sports bettors had gathered for a private meeting to network and exchange information on their trade.

One guest speaker, going by the pseudonym “Mr. X,” runs a major sports betting syndicate that wagers large sums of money through offshore sports books as well as in Las Vegas.

One thing that surprised me is the rate of return expected by pro sports bettors. I expected something more than 1% of total amount wagered, but this is what is reported:

Overall, Mr. X said, his syndicate “holds,” or wins, about 1 percent of the amount of money it puts into action. To put that in perspective, if you bet $1,000 a week for 17 weeks of a football season and had as much success as this group of high-level professional gamblers, you could expect to pocket a grand total of $170. This sports betting stuff truly is a game of inches.

Sure, 1 percent of a big fleet of new cars can be quite a nice score. But even that rate of return requires an enormous amount of work, according to Mr. X. His team completes much of the “heavy lifting” in analyzing the forthcoming football season by June, then relies on statistical models throughout the season itself.

Typically during football season, Tuesday is a big day for placing early wagers. But the action kicks into high gear Thursday through Sunday, when Mr. X sleeps about five hours a day and works the other 19 hours.

“Thursday and Friday, we’re betting all day every day,” Mr. X said. “That’s when we start doing a lot of ‘halves’ (first-half lines), which start coming up (on betting boards). Last year we were betting a lot of college totals on Fridays because there’s so much other stuff you can be doing Saturday morning. On Saturdays, you can really get money down, particularly if you have a network.”

I really enjoy interviews like this that give the reader a small window into the world of pro sports betting. I’m looking for a video interview along the same lines – if anyone knows of one please forward me the info. Thanks!