From the wsj article you mentioned, it seems that they’re suggesting that when an inordinate amount of technical fouls and resulting freethrows are made in a game, a possible fix could be in against the “Over/Under” line. The article is pretty vague and full of caveats, however, making it difficult to understand precisely what to look for. It seems like the author may be trying to point out just how difficult it is to track these types of problems.

You’re right. There’s nothing regulation per se would do to prevent match fixing. Jeffers wants to legalize only match win/loss betting (moneylines?) which are not as likely to lead to tampering. Spreads offer the opportunity for point shaving without affecting the outcome. I don’t think Freakonomics guy quite got that point.

Anyway, a question(s) for you. Have you read this one:

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/hunting-for-suspicious-nba-stats-157/

I’m not sure I understand. Is a ref who’s minding the spread going to call more fouls as they article implies? What kind of behaviour would we expect from a crooked ref vis a vis a total points scam? Call me confused, but I don’t see what trends to expect. Seems to me the only thing to study is the ref himself on the game tape. Was hoping you had some answers