Wednesday, April 18th, 2007...1:38 am

What Does A Sure Bet Have To Do With Gambling? Mmmm… Sherbet

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Rainbow Sherbet

A new trend I’m seeing these days are public gambling sites offering “Sure Thing” bets based on the principles of arbitrage, once reserved for hedge funds and financial markets.

Sure thing bets are a lot different than the “guaranteed” picks of the old days. In the old days a handicapper simply would promise that their picks would win or you wouldn’t pay. This can be hazardous to your wallet in a very short period of time. These days the picks that are identified require you to bet at two different sites or with two different individuals on an exchange. Becuase the variation of the odds are so great, no matter which team wins the match, you will be certain to make money – even when you subtract the vigorish commanded by the sportsbook!

Anyway, here is a list of links to sites offering “Sure Thing” bets. I haven’t been sufficiently motivated to set up the many sportsbooks accounts I would need to take advantage of these situations, but I’m starting to rethink that philosophy. On one hand it seems to be that a sure bet kind of defeats the whole excitement of gambling and turns it into a boring financial instrument such as a savings bond. On the other hand, that new Tesla Roadster would really look great in my garage :) Perhaps this will be the subject of a future post…

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Filed under arbitrage, odds, technology

1 Comment

  • brian
    April 21st, 2007 at 10:26 am

    The “sure bet” was picking the New York Nicks to win the Ewing draft lottery. Now, thanks to youtube, we know how this happened.

    Just in case they pull down the clip between the time we post this blog and the time you read this, here’s what happens: when an accountant from Ernst & Whinney throws the seven envelopes into the glass drum, he bangs the fourth one against the side of the drum to create a creased corner (we’ll explain why this is relevant in a second). Then he pulls a handle and turns the drum around a couple of times to “mix” the envelopes up. At the 5:23 mark of the clip, Stern heads over to the drum, unlocks it and awkwardly reaches inside for the first envelope (the No. 1 pick). He grabs three envelopes that are bunched together, pretends not to look (although he does) and flips the three envelopes so the one on the bottom ends up in his hand. Then he pulls that envelope out at the 5:32 mark … and, of course, it’s the Knicks envelope.

    Now …

    A reader named Greg K. from Fair Lawn, N.J. (I’d give you his whole name, but I don’t want him to be randomly found dead in his bathtub tonight), pointed this out to me: If you look closely right at the 5:31 mark, right as the commish yanks that Knicks envelope out, there’s a noticeable crease in the corner of the envelope. You can see it for a split-second — as he pulls the envelope up, it’s on the corner that’s pointing toward the bottom of the jar.

    Bill Simmons

    YouTube

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